![]() ![]() ![]() A characteristic of competitive sports is that the option of abandoning the contest is not normally available to a competitor, even if defeat is certain. The hope of victory increases effort, commitment, and persistence in the face of difficulty or threat of failure, and thereby raises the chances of success. ![]() On the other hand, confidence, short of complacency, is surely an asset once the contest begins. On the one hand, optimistic overconfidence will sometimes encourage athletes to take on competitors that are too strong for them. The role of optimism is of particular interest for a treat,ment of conflict. Taylor (1989) has reviewed the role of irrational hope in promoting the adjustment of some cancer patients, and Seligman (1991) has claimed that an optimistic explanatory style, in which one takes credit for successes but views failures as aberrations, promotes persistence in the face of difficulties in diverse activities, ranging from the sale of insurance to competitive sports. "The main advantages of optimism may be found in increasing persistence and commitment during the phase of action toward a chosen goal, and in improving the ability to tolerate uncontrollable suffering. "In this paper, we argue that the observed optimism in analysts' forecasts is related to the costs and benefits to analysts of issuing optimistic forecasts when the costs of issuing an optimistic forecast are high relative to the benefits of doing so, optimism will be less apparent or absent." For many traits, women are not optimistic (and even pessimistic e.g., Maccoby and Jacklin 1974), and clinically depressed patirnts ae not optimistic (e.g., Alloy and Ahrens 1987)." Another case is the premarital expectation that one's own romantic marriage will be happy ever after and will not end up in divorce-an expectation that is quite unrealistic in view of divorce rates that are 50 percent and higher (Frey and Eichenberger 2001)." The ipsative possibility set (the one they perceive as constraining their own actions) systematically deviates from the objective possibility set, which distorts behavior (Frey and Heggli 1999). The same holds for their own evaluation of their work performance (Meyer 1975). Thus, a large majority of motorists believe that they belong to the top 20 percent of drivers, which is, of course, objectively impossible. Similarly, most people overestimate their capabilities. Thus, most persons underestimate the probability of being involved in an accident or contracting cancer or AIDS. "Overoptimism, according to which people in identifiable situations believe that the outcomes of events are better for them than for others. For instance, when asked if they thought they were good drivers, around 80% of people say yes! Ask a room full of students who thinks they will finish in the top 50% of the class, on average around 80% of them will respond in the affirmative - of course at least 30% of them will be disappointed at the end of the course" Like the children of Lake Woebegone, they are all above average. People tend to exaggerate their own abilities. "Perhaps the best documented of all psychological errors is the tendency to be over-optimistic. The Oxford Dictionary of English defines optimism as ‘hopefulness and confidence about the future or the success of something’.
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